My understanding is that it's exactly (or essentially) the same deal as was on the table 12 weeks ago, though there's some suspicious messing around with the sequester cuts I haven't investigated.
The big(ger) deal about this postponement is that it gets us past the election. My guess is we'll see a lot of posturing in the next 2-4 weeks and after that people will get down to more serious negotiating.
I fear early 2014 will only be worse, as, in particular, Republican representatives will be doing what they must to avoid being primaried from the right.
Apparently when I read "the next time it comes around on the guitar" I start singing Alice's Restaurant to myself. Did you intend that? Were you thinking of Arlo when you wrote that bit?
That said, it's become accepted wisdom that the current gerrymandered set-up makes it so that the majority of the House don't give a rat's ass about anything national. I don't think that's likely to change at any point before 2018 (when most of the state-level elections start to happen for the assemblies that will do redistricting based on the 2020 census), So from that point of view, kicking the can down the road a few months does no harm.
If they use the time they've just gained to come to some sort of agreement, that's one thing. If all we're going to get is more of the same, but in the winter instead of the fall, that's no help.
Well, and this is why I mentioned the worry of being primaried -- they're not concerned about being beaten by a Democrat opponent so much as someone (with more money than sense, frankly) funding a further-right opponent to run against them in the primaries. This has been evident in the last few House election cycles and I don't see it letting up now; indeed, this "loss" for the far right (as they see it) is going to likely make a lot of the tea partying crowd double down. Cynical, perhaps, but...
Anyway, the deal's probably the best outcome that was going to happen (from the standpoint of people in the real world that aren't sheltered from the effects of this sort of chicanery, I mean) so oh well; as L.M. says, we do it all over again in a few months and see what new master plan has been half-baked. :)
Well, next January in theory we wouldn't have to worry about problems with hitting the debt limit, because from what I understand there's language in the bill that lets the President ignore the debt limit. Just what we need, the government with an unlimited credit card.
This procedural maneuver in question is called the “McConnell rule,” as it is the brainchild of Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader.
Indeed, if Congress put the McConnell rule into effect permanently, it would make it impossible for a small group of lawmakers to push the country into default. But the law puts it into effect only temporarily. Starting now, the Treasury Department is allowed to issue as much debt as needed through Feb. 7. There is no specific number for debt limit.
At that point, however, everything reverts to the previous rule, which requires Congress to raise the debt limit in some way for Treasury to increase the total amount of official borrowing. Mr. Obama would lose the ability to issue debt as needed. Treasury can still employ “extraordinary measures” to keep paying its bills. Eventually, unless Congress acts, another cash squeeze would set in.
And I'm not even sure if this is a bright spot; it gives Congress the ability to shut down the government for an even *longer* period of time, before triggering a Global Financial Catastrophe. :(
(no subject)
Date: 2013-10-17 01:35 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2013-10-17 02:42 pm (UTC)The big(ger) deal about this postponement is that it gets us past the election. My guess is we'll see a lot of posturing in the next 2-4 weeks and after that people will get down to more serious negotiating.
(no subject)
Date: 2013-10-17 04:17 pm (UTC)I fear early 2014 will only be worse, as, in particular, Republican representatives will be doing what they must to avoid being primaried from the right.
(no subject)
Date: 2013-10-17 04:34 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2013-10-17 05:13 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2013-10-17 05:26 pm (UTC)That said, it's become accepted wisdom that the current gerrymandered set-up makes it so that the majority of the House don't give a rat's ass about anything national. I don't think that's likely to change at any point before 2018 (when most of the state-level elections start to happen for the assemblies that will do redistricting based on the 2020 census), So from that point of view, kicking the can down the road a few months does no harm.
(no subject)
Date: 2013-10-17 06:30 pm (UTC)I guess we'll see.
(no subject)
Date: 2013-10-17 07:06 pm (UTC)Anyway, the deal's probably the best outcome that was going to happen (from the standpoint of people in the real world that aren't sheltered from the effects of this sort of chicanery, I mean) so oh well; as L.M. says, we do it all over again in a few months and see what new master plan has been half-baked. :)
(no subject)
Date: 2013-10-17 09:07 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2013-10-18 05:03 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2013-10-18 05:12 am (UTC)From http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/18/business/economy/lingering-confusion-in-debt-ceiling-deals-temporary-fix.html?_r=0:
(no subject)
Date: 2013-10-22 07:07 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2013-10-22 07:09 pm (UTC)