We may be splitting hairs here, but I think the claim that the Euro peg was going to end is both trivially true (nothing lasts forever) and unhelpful. Likewise I'm sure that mortgage interest rates are going to rise - once that happens it'll seem inevitable, but if you look at the past year even 30-year-fixed rates continue to tumble.
The probability of the peg ending on any specific day is nearly zero or nearly impossible to predict depending on how you look at it. I would also argue that the choice to make a flat-out end to the peg rather than a gradual increase in the exchange rate float amount was also hard/impossible to predict. SNB could just as easily have said something like "starting next month we will allow up to a 5% float, increasing by five percent per month for the subsequent three months after which time restrictions will be removed altogether."
Had they said that and exchanges continued to allow low-margin positions to continue then that'd be a screw-up. But instead they yanked the plug all at once and the ship hit the iceberg.
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Date: 2015-01-23 11:22 am (UTC)The probability of the peg ending on any specific day is nearly zero or nearly impossible to predict depending on how you look at it. I would also argue that the choice to make a flat-out end to the peg rather than a gradual increase in the exchange rate float amount was also hard/impossible to predict. SNB could just as easily have said something like "starting next month we will allow up to a 5% float, increasing by five percent per month for the subsequent three months after which time restrictions will be removed altogether."
Had they said that and exchanges continued to allow low-margin positions to continue then that'd be a screw-up. But instead they yanked the plug all at once and the ship hit the iceberg.