(no subject)

[randomness]

Meteorologists are much more accurate much more of the time than financial pundits, but because everyone thinks they understand the weather, everyone feels like they're an expert.

The financial pundits have a great gig.

Comments

[happyfunpaul.livejournal.com]

Results/feedback is also clearer. "6 to 10 inches" predicted, "less than an inch" actual = WRONG. Every day a meteorologist gets a grade that's clear and immediate. With finance? Not so much.

Not just finance, either. Lots of professions involve judgments that are difficult to check, or at least with results so delayed that no one thinks to check. (I have a fondness for those who, for example, go back at the end of football season and check the prognosticators' accuracy at the start of the season.)

[achinhibitor.livejournal.com]

Not to mention that the people who can really make accurate predictions in the financial markets aren't flapping their lips on Channel 7 News. I seem to remember several financial institutions were selling all mortgage-backed securities sometime early in 2008, and one hedge fund made a killing by shorting them.