What they said, and when they said it.

[randomness]

A couple of years ago, Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture blog posted this 1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators:


Chart locations are an approximate indication only

Here are some of the accompanying quotes:

1. "We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927

5. "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929

7. "The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."
- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929

"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."
- The Times of London, November 2, 1929

"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before."
- Business Week, November 2, 1929

8. "Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929

9. "I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929

"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929

15. "Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930

20. "All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

(The above link has the full list of quotes. While the quotes and their accompanying identifing blurbs are from the original site, I added links to Wikipedia articles for more background.)

My thinking on this is that it's not necessarily the case that if you say something foolish it means you're a fool. Rather, it's that smart people can say things that look very dumb in retrospect.

In the current situation, some people are likely saying things that will end up looking pretty silly.

Comments

[belfrynotes.livejournal.com]

I was browsing through a 1998 book called "The Roaring 2000s" at a Goodwill in Portland (OR) yesterday. I probably should have bought it for you. The guy did sort of call the rise of internet commerce in coming years, but that writing was already on the wall by '98. But he totally didn't see the housing bubble coming and said we could expect to see the Dow at at least 21,500 by 2008, and possibly as high as 35,000.

[r-ness.livejournal.com]

James Glassman and Kevin Hassett wrote an entire book called "Dow 36,000" back in 1999. They appear unrepentant.

I am a bit curious about: Bull! 144 Stupid Statements from the Market's Fallen Prophets, but not enough to buy it.

Finally, as has been pointed out, Dow 36,000 may not be anything you really want. One commenter on a blog I just read said, "I will be following that 35,000 DOW while enjoying my $85 hot dog."

[belfrynotes.livejournal.com]

Oh, and here's an article from Slate about a proposed new economic indicator, which came about from correlating geographical aspects of the economic crash with international Starbucks density: http://www.slate.com/id/2202707/

[r-ness.livejournal.com]

Hah! That actually makes a fair amount of sense. Thanks!