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From http://dealbreaker.com/2009/04/what-is-going-to-happen-to-the.php:
Maybe it is just us, but there are a number of things that just scream "wishful thinking." Like the return of Growing Pains to television, a re-do on the OJ Simpson trial, owning your own private island, or a widely successful debt-for-equity swap at General Motors.And from http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/16/forecasting-the-official-forecasts-spring-2009-edition/:General Motors Corp. is planning to make a formal offer to all bondholders by April 27 to exchange their $27.5 billion in claims for equity, according to a person with knowledge of the discussions.Yes, we know, we know, the administration wants 66% of the original bonds whacked out via such a swap so their fantasy of a "surgical bankruptcy" can be realized (where "surgical bankruptcy" means "fail to piss off the UAW too badly") but no one seems very likely to want to make nice-nice with this administration in a case like this (when being "nice" means giving up cash). This hasn't stopped the administration from trying, though the latest efforts (concentrating on how bad it would be for Detroit if the bankruptcy turns out as anything but a blistering bit of unexpected caning for bondholders) seem a little familiar to us. Familiar sort of like the guilt trip your mother used to play on you when you were twelve.
Many officials seem to have bought into some version of the “it’s a V!” take on the global recession. To me, this looks like wishful thinking. Whether or not you support the “V” view fully, officials should surely be spending more time preparing for worse scenarios.
Just in case - why not prepare properly for the cross-border resolution issues that would arise from the failure of a major global bank? Why did the G20 decline to take on this issue properly? Even the IMF’s baseline, I expect, will suggest potentially serious problems ahead.
