There's more financial news this Sunday night than on most weekdays.

[randomness]

Lehman Brothers looks like it's going to file for bankruptcy tonight.

Merrill Lynch is selling itself to Bank of America to avoid a similar fate.

American International Group has asked the Federal Reserve for a $40 billion loan.

It's the phase of the moon! :) Or the phase of the business cycle, anyway.

Comments

[r-ness.livejournal.com]

Assuming you have less than $100,000 each in that bank and in that credit union, and that they're both Federally insured, you should only have to worry about how soon it takes for the FDIC to get money to you, even in the extreme case of both going bust.

I don't actually have any links on the math. I try really hard not to invest in anything I don't understand. I agree that it would make a great presentation, though. You'll probably want to talk to someone in the econ or finance departments about that.

I'm interested in hearing the presentation and I'm sorry I can't help. :(

[meepodeekin.livejournal.com]

No problem. But now I have to go be responsible and do actual research...

I am going to start with basics like how to amortize a given principle amount at a given interest rate and such, but I'd like to get into how mortgage-based instruments were created and how they were rated and such...it is extremely interesting and timely but a bit further out of my comfort zone than I would like.

We have waaay less than $100,000 but some doom-mongers are predicting a run on the FDIC. Should I be concerned?

[r-ness.livejournal.com]

It's true that if WaMu goes bust, the FDIC will likely run through its $45 billion deposit insurance fund paying out deposits they've guaranteed.

But if the FDIC runs out of money, they just fall back on the $70 billion credit line they have with the Treasury. If they look like they're going to run through that, the Treasury can raise the FDIC's credit line. And, of course, the Treasury cannot run out of dollars, as they can simply inflate their way out of the problem by issuing more debt. Ultimately, this becomes a problem, but it does backstop the deposit institutions. (Well, I suppose they could raise taxes. Stop laughing. :) )

Given the choice between a bank panic and inflation, the precedent is that the government will go with inflation. Arguably, this is even the right choice. In any case, it's fairly clear that they'll hand you back your money and keep their promise, even if they have to print it just for you.

I'm sure that's reassuring.

[meepodeekin.livejournal.com]

Yep, thanks. I feel waaay better now. :)

And thanks for the links.

[r-ness.livejournal.com]

Say, I did find this, which while not particularly mathematical does outline some problems with the sorts of derivatives that were being constructed, way back in '99:

http://www.derivativesstrategy.com/magazine/archive/1999/0899qa.asp

[r-ness.livejournal.com]

Oh, and while I'm at it, here's the Q&A referenced in the above link:

http://www.derivativesstrategy.com/magazine/archive/1997/1296qa.asp